Thinking ahead in uncertain times

Ricardo Borges de Castro opens with a clear framing: strategic foresight is a tool designed to help manage uncertainty. It’s not about a “crystal ball”, he explains, it’s about making decisions today that influence tomorrow, even while knowing you can’t control all variables. In a time when Europe faces what he and colleagues call the permacrisis (i.e., an ongoing web of interlinked challenges), foresight becomes essential.

When crisis is the new normal

The notion of a “permacrisis” illustrates how the EU faces multilayered, interconnected crises simultaneously. At first, some policymakers saw this term as overly negative, Borges de Castro recalls, but the reality since the Covid-19 pandemic confirms it: volatility and uncertainty are here to stay. This reality demands anticipatory policy capabilities and, in some cases, stronger executive powers within the Commission. Drawing on examples from the US response to health and security threats, he emphasizes that democracies must be smarter, not just faster, to survive.

Politics vs. long-term vision

A significant hurdle is the short-term focus of elected officials. Politics tends to think in election cycles, he says, but many of the issues we face won’t resolve in one mandate. Despite political fragmentation and polarization, Borges de Castro stresses the imperative of “nudging” politicians towards long-term decision making, even when the message is uncomfortable. Like confronting climate change or population decline.

Why now is exactly the right time for foresight

Contrary to popular sentiment, Borges de Castro believes this moment is ripe for strategic foresight. It helps build the ‘intellectual muscle’ politicians need, he remarks. He references AI, demographic shifts, and climate change as domains demanding foresight’s steady hand. The tool’s purpose is preparedness and action, which is precisely what the EU needs.

Institutional challenges in Brussels

While more foresight work happens in EU institutions than a decade ago, fragmentation hampers coordination. The Commission benefits from a stable mandate favoring long-term thinking, but Parliament’s political complexity and the Council’s national interests complicate consensus. Borges de Castro warns about the risk of foresight becoming overly bureaucratic and losing its creative edge crucial for delivering difficult truths to decision-makers.

Integrating foresight into EU Foreign Policy

Foresight in EU external action remains complicated by member states’ control over security and foreign policy. However, Borges de Castro points to greater coordination efforts within the External Action Service, including specialized units like the China Fellows, who provide multidisciplinary perspectives on issues spanning trade, security, and human rights.

Public participation: a double-edged sword

Borges de Castro recognizes the rising trend of participatory foresight to improve public trust but warns against tokenism. Thoughtfully calibrated engagement ensures meaningful contributions, while poorly managed processes risk alienating citizens, which has been seen in experiences with the Conference on the Future of Europe.

The human side of foresight: openness and translation

Successful foresight practitioners require humility and openness to constantly challenge assumptions. Equally important is bridging the gap between foresight insights and concrete policy implementation, or a proper “translation function” currently sorely missing in EU structures. Borges de Castro advocates for permanent, high-level foresight-policy units with institutional memory, modelled on Finland and Singapore, to sustain long-term strategic capacity.

Final thoughts

In a world where predictable futures no longer exist, Ricardo Borges de Castro’s reflections underscore foresight’s vital role: “If democracy cannot be faster, it needs to be smarter; and being smarter means being able to see what is coming at it and what might be some of the challenges that it's going to face.”

This article is based on an exclusive interview recorded in 2025 for The Diplomat’s Cabinet podcast. For more insights, subscribe to our newsletter and listen to the full episode.